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Analyst: Slumping Economy Leads to Trimmed Mac Sale Estimates

American Technology Research analyst, Shaw Wu, maintains that even Apple is susceptible to downturn due in part to the severe economic situation, as he has cut his December and March quarters as well as 2009 revenue and EPS estimates.

Wu notes that while September quarter Mac sales could potentially remain healthy due to the school season and free iPod promotion, future estimates do not appear so bright. AlleyInsider reiterates Wu’s justification for slumping Mac estimates which has been broken down into three main reasons.

• First and foremost, people are buying cheaper Macs. “…it appears that more affluent consumers may be feeling the effects of a tighter credit environment.” Specifically, sales and build plans of the MacBook Air “appear more modest.”

• The second being that the industry is “likely to aim for lean inventory” during slow macro conditions.

• The third and final reason is that supply chain checks offer “low visibility in the December and March quarter, which we believe will likely impact build plans.”

It is commonly thought that distributors and OEMs may be looking to keep inventory low and supply chain checks reveal that companies are gearing towards low and mid-range Macs. Wu has cut September and December quarter estimates by nearly $100 million each and trimmed fiscal 2009 revenues by about $500 million.

Less we forget all of the recent rumors circulating about, that may indicate an imminent refresh to Apple’s notebook line to be unveiled at a special event speculated to take place on October 14. While Mac notebooks have been in dire need of an overhaul, price cuts may not be out of the question for Mac to maintain sales during such economic conditions. Additionally, Apple’s iMac has been rumored to see a refresh before the ever important holiday season, which may provide some support as well.

“We continue to believe that MacBook Pro and MacBook are due for refreshes with more radical redesigns, likely at a special event later this fall. In addition, we are picking up that MacBook Air could see a minor refresh and potential price cut to increase its value proposition as build plans have slowed from earlier robust levels as customers have opted for MacBook or MacBook Pro instead.”