Analysts who may ordinarily be skeptical and perhaps even pessimistic have recently been battling to see who can set the highest targets on the upcoming iPhone 3G release. The once ambitious number of 10 million purposed by Steve Jobs himself may be seen as rather conservative these days compared to some analysts’ claims. Lets take a look at a few of these predictions:
“• Piper Jaffray predicts 12.9 and 45 million units for 2008 and 2009, respectively.
• Morgan Stanley predicts a doubling of iPhone sales, meaning 10-12 million, in 2008, and more than 27 million in 2009.
• Citigroup predicts 12 million units in the second half of this year and 23 million in 2009.
• RBC Capital predicts more than 5 million in Q3 and 6.5 million in Q4, for a total of 14 million for 2008, then 24 million in 2009. RBC also released the results of a consumer panel survey indicating that 56% of those planning to buy a smartphone in the next 90 days plan to purchase an iPhone, up from 35% in March, and that 27% may buy an iPhone sometime in the future. (The author of that report was unavailable for comment today.)
• Friedman Billings Ramsey semiconductor analyst Craig Berger: 17 million, of which 15 million are 3G iPhones.
• CLSA Emerging Markets’ Jenny Lai: 18 million.
• Pacific Crest’s Andy Hargreaves: 23 million iPhones by June 2009.
• Needham & Co. tech analyst Charles Wolf: 30 million iPhones in 2009.”
I absolutely believe that we will see sales top the 10 million mark in 2008, and am not surprised to see such high predictions for 2009. These claims do not seem that extravagant when, for example, the Chinese market is taken into account as there are currently over 500 million cell phones in use which will only continue to grow.
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